09/11/2012

Smart Currency Rates and Comments 9th November 2012 - Lots happening but a steady week for sterling

This week                 (Last week)
GBP/EUR - 1.2522      (GBP/EUR - 1.2464 )
GBP/USD - 1.5978      (GBP/USD - 1.6088 )
EUR/GBP - 0.7980      (EUR/GBP - 0.8018 )
EUR/USD - 1.2754      (EUR/USD - 1.2902 )
GBP/AED - 5.8662      (GBP/AED - 5.9088 )
GBP/AUD - 1.5332      (GBP/AUD - 1.5492 )
GBP/CAD - 1.5965      (GBP/CAD - 1.6038 )
GBP/CHF - 1.5106      (GBP/CHF - 1.5046 )
GBP/HKD - 12.3889     (GBP/HKD - 12.4632 )
GBP/INR - 86.96       (GBP/INR - 86.32 )
GBP/JPY - 127.03      (GBP/JPY - 129.26 )
GBP/NZD - 1.9561      (GBP/NZD - 1.9482 )
GBP/SEK - 10.6792     (GBP/SEK - 10.7472 )
GBP/ZAR - 13.8826     (GBP/ZAR - 13.9172 )


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Sterling had a mixed week, trading in a fairly narrow range against most of its trading partners. The main news out of the UK came from yesterday's Bank of England meeting where the central bank voted to keep quantitative easing on hold for the time being. Whilst this had been expected by a lot of investors, it helped lift sterling as it implies the central bank believes the economy is coping well enough at present to not further loosen monetary policy. On the contrary, data release on Monday showed that Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a fall to 50.6 last month, much lower than the 52 forecast - its slowest increase in nearly two years. Other data showed that Manufacturing Production had grown by only 0.1%, less than the forecast 0.3%. Trade balance data is the main release on the agenda today. The main focus and exchange rate influencer has and is likely to remain Europe for the next few months. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro struggled this week as investors became nervous about the region in general, epitomized by the President of the European Central Bank’s comments implying that the problems in Europe had now spread to Germany. The Greek lawmakers narrowly passed the austerity package that is essential for the troubled nation to receive more bailout funds; however, news released yesterday confirmed that the decision on whether or not Greece will receive the next tranche of its bailout will not be made next week and it could drag on till the end of the month. More bad news came as the European Commission downgraded its growth forecasts for the region stating that the recession would be deeper than initially anticipated. There is little news out of Europe today; but, with so much uncertainty surrounding Greece, and its lawmakers voting on the 2013 budget on Sunday, you can expect the markets to remain very nervous. Call in now to speak to your trader and so get a live price.

After much anticipation, the elections in America passed with very little effect on the value of the US dollar. Other than a small shift in the immediate aftermath of Obama's victory, the dollar remained fairly range-bound against most of its major peers this week. Yesterday afternoon saw small gains on the back of much better than anticipated Employment and Trade balance figures, but effects are likely to have been dampened by nervousness of the looming 'fiscal cliff' – the January deadline for the President to avoid automatic tax increases and simultaneous cuts. Consumer sentiment data released later today could hit the price, so get in touch to lock in the rate now.

Elsewhere, the main news came from Australia this week where the Reserve Bank of Australia caught investors by surprise by holding interest rates at 3.25%, when a 0.25% cut had been widely anticipated. Overnight we saw the release of the Monetary Policy Statement from Australia and inflation data from China. There is very little other data out today; but, trade balance data will be released from China on Saturday. Call in now to lock in a price.

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Exchange rates can move very quickly. The above rates are valid at a moment in time. We have no crystal ball and we recommend that if an exchange rate works for your budget then don’t wait for an even better exchange rate - Murphy’s Law says the rate will go against you and cause you maximum pain! Suggestions should not be taken as advice or fact.

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