12/11/2012

Smart Currency Rates and Comments 12th November 2012 - Lots of problems everywhere, will sterling benefit?

GBP/EUR - 1.2501
GBP/USD - 1.5890
EUR/GBP - 0.7996
EUR/USD - 1.2704
GBP/AED - 5.8364
GBP/AUD - 1.5254
GBP/CAD - 1.5876
GBP/CHF - 1.5074
GBP/HKD - 12.3172
GBP/INR - 87.49
GBP/JPY - 126.25
GBP/NZD - 1.9470
GBP/SEK - 10.7184
GBP/ZAR - 13.8321

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A difficult week ahead in the currency markets. Since the start of Friday of last week we have seen risk aversion increase significantly as worries over Greece’s debts and the US fiscal cliff increase. There is also a raft of data released during the course of this week. Here in the UK we have inflation data for October released and the expectation is for it to be similar to last months at around 2.3 per cent. What will be of great interest to investors will be the accompanying comments from the Bank of England as this may give some background as to why they kept quantitative easing on hold at there meeting last week. We also have retail sale data released on Thursday and the expectation is for a fall from the previous month but for there still to be reasonable growth. There is a lot happening this week and plenty of scope for rapid movement in exchange rates either way. So please call your trader now to get the latest update and rates.

Greece has come to the fore again. Their parliament voted over the weekend for next year’s budget and further austerity cuts. However it appear that they are in desperate need of some short term funds to pay debts and that the required funds aren’t immediately available so we could well see some high stake brinkmanship this week. We also have a whole raft of Euro zone economic data released this week with the main release being the third quarter GDP figures. Expectations aren’t high so hopefully there won’t be a surprise to the downside. Eurogroup finance ministers meet today so expect nervousness in the markets in anticipation of leaks of potentially influential information. Get in touch for a live quote and the latest news on the euro.

The US dollar continues to be the main beneficiary of the increased risk aversion having gained a couple of cents against sterling in the last week or so. There are two main worries in the US. We are fast approaching the ceiling for government debt which can only be increased if all parliamentary groups agree to do so. Last time this was a protracted and difficult process and resulted in the US losing its AAA credit rating for its debt. Short term this hasn’t been a problem but could be longer term. This time we have the fiscal cliff to negotiate as well which is the double whammy of increased taxes and reduced government expenditure to take place in January. This could seriously affect US growth prospects at a very critical time as the US looks at last to be growing again. Please call your trader now for the latest rate.

Elsewhere there seems to be a paucity of key economic data. The key driver for currencies such as the Australian dollar will be risk aversion and risk appetite as dictated by the US and Chinese economies.

Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote on: 0845 638 0571 (or +44 (0)207 898 0500 from outside the UK) or fill out our quote form

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Disclaimer
Exchange rates can move very quickly. The above rates are valid at a moment in time. We have no crystal ball and we recommend that if an exchange rate works for your budget then don’t wait for an even better exchange rate - Murphy’s Law says the rate will go against you and cause you maximum pain! Suggestions should not be taken as advice or fact.

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