10/05/2013

Sterling steady - how long will it last? | Smart Daily Currency Note

This week                 (Last week)
GBP/EUR - 1.1832      (GBP/EUR - 1.1858)
GBP/USD - 1.5432      (GBP/USD - 1.5544) 
EUR/GBP - 0.8449      (EUR/GBP - 0.8428)
EUR/USD - 1.3035       (EUR/USD - 1.3106)
GBP/AED - 5.6652     (GBP/AED - 5.7087) 
GBP/AUD - 1.5330     (GBP/AUD - 1.5150)
GBP/CAD - 1.5564       (GBP/CAD - 1.5742)
GBP/CHF - 1.4651      (GBP/CHF - 1.4495)
GBP/HKD – 11.98    (GBP/HKD – 12.06)
GBP/INR – 84.1675         (GBP/INR – 83.748)
GBP/JPY – 155.99       (GBP/JPY – 152.37)
GBP/NZD - 1.8470       (GBP/NZD - 1.8237)
GBP/SEK – 10.1141      (GBP/SEK – 10.1373)
GBP/ZAR – 13.9605       (GBP/ZAR – 13.9170)

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Sterling has been trading in a narrow range against the euro and the US dollar since the start of the month but it has been moving rapidly between the two extremes as new data pushes market sentiment one way and then the other. Yesterday the release of UK industrial production showed that in March UK manufacturing had grown and at a faster rate than predicted. On the same day the Bank of England confirmed that it had decided for the tenth month in a row not to extend its quantitative easing measures or change interest rates - this was very much as expected. Alongside this, the British economy expanded at a 0.8 per cent in the three months to the end of April according to estimates by think-tank NIESR; well ahead of the previous reading of 0.3 per cent. However the base for this is growth is the weak level of output in January which has inflated the quarterly rate of growth in both the production sector and the broader economy in the three months to April 2013 as NIESR added that underlying growth is therefore weaker than the headline suggests. Sterling started the week poorly before bouncing back and rising at its fastest rate in two months against the US dollar before losing ground late yesterday. Attention now turns to today's import and export data and the G7 meetings. Call in now to see how these can affect your currency requirements.

Following a two-day bank holiday in Germany and France it has been a quiet week for the single currency. The euro started off poorly this week as it slipped across its major pairings after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stated the ECB is closely watching incoming data and is prepared to take further action if required to address imbedded economic weakness. Gains were made however throughout the latter half of the week following strong industrial production from Germany and Portugal and a ECB board member stating that the risk of break-up of the single currency is behind us. This contrasts with yesterday's ECB’s monthly survey report which warns of a deepening recession in the monetary union and whose economists expressed that the ECB will refrain from cutting its interest rate again until 2015. Today we have little news released apart from the G7 meetings commencing. Talk to your dedicated trader for views on upcoming news and the latest prices.

The US dollar surged around lunchtime yesterday as news hit the markets that the number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped to a five-year low. This corroborated strong US unemployment data last week and was seen as a signal the labour market is strengthening for the long term. Gains were seen across the board against its major pairings, especially against the euro and Japanese yen as applications for unemployment insurance payments decreased to the lowest level since early 2008. Along with the release of the Federal Budget Balance,  the Federal Reserve Chairman speaks today and may shed some light on what he anticipates for the US quantitative easing stimulus programme going forward. US dollars regained lost ground yesterday as indicators that the world's largest economy is on the road to recovery. Call in now for the latest developments before the weekend.

The Japanese yen continued to weaken passing through the psychological level of 100 against the US dollar. This will be a boost to Japanese exports and help increase inflation as imports become more expensive. The Australian and New Zealand dollars climbed on Thursday against most of their traded peers following news from both nations that unemployment rates had fallen. This reversed a weakening trend but proved to be short term as the downward trajectory continued following the release of the better than expected US employment data. Canadian dollars meanwhile were on course for a full week of gains over its US counterpart before data released described slowing house price growth whereby the currency weakened. Important Canadian employment figures will have a significant effect on the market at lunchtime today: Stay in touch now for all information and price levels before the end of the week.


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