03/04/2013

Is the UK headed for a triple dip recession? | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR - 1.1792
GBP/USD - 1.5097
EUR/GBP - 0.8479
EUR/USD - 1.2802
GBP/AED - 5.5427
GBP/AUD - 1.4428
GBP/CAD - 1.5317
GBP/CHF - 1.4350
GBP/CNY - 9.3585
GBP/HKD – 11.72
GBP/HUF – 355.91
GBP/INR – 82.08
GBP/JPY – 141.05
GBP/NZD - 1.7938
GBP/RUB – 47.39
GBP/SEK – 9.8071
GBP/ZAR – 13.9412


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Sterling was one of the worst performing currencies yesterday, struggling to hold onto recent gains as the Manufacturing Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data once again disappointed, coming in half a percent lower than expected, causing sterling to drop by as much as 1% against its major counterparts. Today is the second of the three major PMI releases, this time from the construction sector, with nervous mutterings developing about the potential for further quantitative easing from Thursday’s Bank of England meeting if results continue in a weak vein. Tomorrow is the crucial day, with PMI figures from the Services sector - which makes up over 75% of the UK's GDP - being touted as the key to avoiding the so-called triple dip recession. Get in touch now for the latest news and up to the second prices.

In the Eurozone, headlines today were of unemployment rates climbing to record highs. The figure was revised to 12%: more than it has been since its formation in 1999 – highlighting the probability of compounded contraction in the first quarter of this year. This had an impact on the single currency; falling as it has against the US dollar and Japanese yen. Having been under pressure on this front for much of the trading session, selling accelerated with news of Cyprus' Finance Minister resigning. It is clear that Europe's economy is still facing huge problems, with troubles on its periphery exacerbating the issue. CPI inflation data will be the main release on the agenda today, but traders will have one eye on Thursday’s ECB meeting where a decision to retain interest rates at 0.75% is expected. Be in touch with Smart for current prices and further developments.

The US dollar performed reasonably well on a quiet day yesterday, making considerable gains against sterling and strengthening slightly against euro following the release of poor data in the UK and across Europe. As expected, monthly data regarding orders placed with manufacturers in the world's largest economy showed an encouraging increase causing the US dollar to remain steady whilst sterling and the single currency continued to struggle. Today will see more varied data released including crude oil inventories, monthly employment data and monthly non-manufacturing data, which could all have some bearing on performance throughout the day. Call in now for live rates and up to date information.

Elsewhere, strong data released from China boosted demand for commodity-backed currencies – particularly the Canadian dollar which reached a five-week high against its US counterpart. The Australian dollar also performed well following the decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep interest rates on hold and in the run up to trade balance data released late last night. Get in touch to keep track of these the latest rates.

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Exchange rates can move very quickly. The above rates are valid at a moment in time. We have no crystal ball and we recommend that if an exchange rate works for your budget then don’t wait for an even better exchange rate - Murphy’s Law says the rate will go against you and cause you maximum pain! Suggestions should not be taken as advice or fact.

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