20/03/2013

Cyprus, UK budget - a busy day for news | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR - 1.1695
GBP/USD - 1.5095
EUR/GBP - 0.8548
EUR/USD - 1.2902
GBP/AED - 5.5406
GBP/AUD - 1.4542
GBP/CAD - 1.5502
GBP/CHF - 1.4296
GBP/CNY - 9.36
GBP/HKD – 11.7053
GBP/HUF – 357.16
GBP/INR – 81.97
GBP/JPY – 143.89
GBP/NZD - 1.8351
GBP/RUB – 46.65
GBP/SEK – 9.7432
GBP/ZAR – 13.9542


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Sterling had a positive day yesterday, in particular against the euro– reaching 1.1750 before retracing as investors are treating sterling as a relative safe haven due to the uncertainty surrounding the events taking place in Cyprus. The inflation data released yesterday will disappoint consumers, showing a small increase to 2.8%, squeezing the general public’s pockets ever more.  Wednesday will be an extremely busy day for the UK, with several key releases creating the potential for a great deal of market volatility. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee minutes released this morning will reveal the outcome of votes from the March meeting. Markets expect an unchanged outcome with 3 members voting for more quantitative easing – should this number increase to 4, you can expect sterling to suffer. We will also have the annual budget from the Chancellor  which will be watched closely for any reforms that could boost growth in the UK - however no major change is expected, remaining broadly unchanged relative to the December Statement.  Today we will also see a raft of labour related data released, with the overall  unemployment rate predicted to remain unchanged at 7.8%, whilst another drop in the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits is expected. Call in now for the latest update.

Contagion is the word on trader's lips this week, as the chaos in Cyprus threatens the stability of the euro. Rumours were abounding over the resignation of the Finance Minister, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding affairs in the region. The debate ahead of the crucial vote on the IMF bailout began last night with many, including the Minister for Defence, expecting the motion to fail. Yesterday evening we saw this expectation come to pass and parliament  rejected the bank levy bill. The rejection of the bailout – some say - amounts to a vote to leave the Eurozone, so the consequences could be dramatic but the market reaction has been muted. While the flexibility shown in regards to the Greek bailout would lead you to believe that Europe would give them a second chance, on-going uncertainty does not bode well for the 17 nation currency either way. After dropping to levels not seen since November yesterday against the US dollar we wait to see how low can the euro go. Get in touch with your trader to find out.

A risk adverse market helped the US dollar to perform relatively well yesterday, in a day that was dominated by news from the Eurozone. As well as making significant gains against the euro, the US dollar also strengthened against the majority of its major peers after building permit data coming in slightly better than forecast. Whilst events surrounding the Cypriot bailout are likely to continue to dominate market chatter, today also sees the Federal bank announce its decision on monetary policy. Whilst no change is expected, the economic predictions regarding inflation and economic growth by the Federal Open Market Committee will be watched closely by market analysts. Call in now for live rates and up to date information.

Elsewhere, the South African rand saw a big slide today, dropping 0.8% against the US dollar bringing its total fall to 8.5% this year. A state-owned electricity company began implementing rolling blackouts across the country, due to concerns over both coal supplies and South Africa's reserve power margin. Furthermore, market uncertainty following the problems in the Euro zone has led to a general sell-off in high-risk, emerging-market assets, of which the rand is one. Similarly, the Polish zloty had a very weak day, suffering the same affliction as the higher yielding South African rand. Conversely, we saw a very strong day for the Japanese yen as investors bought up safe haven currencies. The Norwegian krone suffered following its central bank all but ruling our an interest rate hike in the near future. Call in now for a live price.

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