18/01/2013

Smart Daily Currency Note | Sterling below 1.20 against the euro

This week                 (Last week)
GBP/EUR - 1.1930      (GBP/EUR - 1.2168)
GBP/USD - 1.5981      (GBP/USD - 1.6047) 
EUR/GBP - 0.8378      (EUR/GBP - 0.8215)
EUR/USD - 1.3382       (EUR/USD - 1.3265)
GBP/AED - 5.8665     (GBP/AED - 5.9260) 
GBP/AUD - 1.5188     (GBP/AUD - 1.5279)
GBP/CAD - 1.5771       (GBP/CAD - 1.5890)
GBP/CHF - 1.4956       (GBP/CHF - 1.4791)
GBP/HKD - 12.3851    (GBP/HKD - 12.5091)
GBP/INR - 86.03         (GBP/INR - 88.09)
GBP/JPY - 143.86       (GBP/JPY - 143.79)
GBP/NZD - 1.9122       (GBP/NZD - 1.9198)
GBP/SEK - 10.3762      (GBP/SEK - 10.4781)
GBP/ZAR - 14.1214       (GBP/ZAR - 13.9887)

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Yesterday proved once more to be a disappointing day for sterling as it crashed through the 1.20 level against the euro  and continued to lose further ground versus its major peers. The damage of an increasingly pessimistic outlook for the UK economy further dampened demand for the British currency, whilst traders had been focussing on David Cameron's now cancelled speech this morning where he was due to outline  his plans on repatriating powers from the European Union. Yesterday eventually saw sterling fall below the key support level of 1.20 versus the euro - at one point touching 1.1953. This trend has continued this morning hitting lows last seen April 2012 - suggesting the currency could continue to fall considerably below this level. There was also disappointing news versus the US dollar, trending below the key 1.60 value for the second consecutive day; brought about mainly by the positive unemployment data emerging from America. The major data released from the UK this week has been Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, remaining constant at 2.7%. Today sees the latest retail sales data, likely to give a clear insight into the current economic health of the UK. Should this data come out worse than forecast, we could easily see sterling's decline pick up pace, so call in now for the latest news from your trader.

The start of this week saw the euro continue upon last week's trend, strengthening against the US dollar - hitting the 1.3360 mark - whilst pressurising the psychological resistance level of 1.20 against sterling. The euro's relentless surge did stall somewhat as a series of weak data was released - Germany's Federal Statistics Office showing that GDP in 2012 came out below expectations at 0.7%, much lower than the 3% seen in 2011, whilst also slashing its growth forecast to 1% for 2013. This negative outlook for the Eurozone's largest economy highlights how business confidence slipped away last year as the Euro zone politicians prevaricated on how to sort out their debt crisis. During the tail end of this week, the euro zone saw little data released; however, in spite of this the euro strengthened against sterling, hitting a ten month high. There is little data to be released within the euro zone today, so call in now for a live market quote with your trader.

The Federal Reserve Chairman started the week with a speech warning that the fiscal cliff remains a threat to the US economy; in spite of this, the US dollar held its ground, pushing up through the week on the back of a series of good data releases. Retail sales brought positivity with results exceeding expectations, whilst strong employment data helped push the US dollar higher as unemployment rates are now so closely linked with monetary policy. Today sees the release of consumer economic sentiment data, which is forecast to rise, so expect the trend to continue as uncertainty surrounds the so-called "currency war". Call our traders and see how the reveal of financial confidence among consumers will change the rates.

Elsewhere, the focus has remained on Japan this week with the yen gaining in the first half of the week as traders speculated that the government would refrain from deliberately weakening the currency to boost exports. This trend then reversed in the later stage of week, with the Japanese yen dropping back to a two-and-a-half year low yesterday. Japan are not alone in expressing a desire to deliberately weaken their currency - Thailand have said the same after the Thai baht hit a 17 month high yesterday, and the Danish have also joined in after their currency reached a record high this month. Russian politicians claim that the world is on the brink of a "currency war" as politicians look to influence currency prices to their advantage. Get in touch for an update and the latest prices.

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Exchange rates can move very quickly. The above rates are valid at a moment in time. We have no crystal ball and we recommend that if an exchange rate works for your budget then don’t wait for an even better exchange rate - Murphy’s Law says the rate will go against you and cause you maximum pain! Suggestions should not be taken as advice or fact.

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