30/11/2012

Smart Currency Rates and Comments 30th November 2012 - Sterling in the doldrums

This week                 (Last week)
GBP/EUR - 1.2328      (GBP/EUR - 1.2362 )
GBP/USD - 1.6046      (GBP/USD - 1.5958 )
EUR/GBP - 0.8107      (EUR/GBP - 0.8085 )
EUR/USD - 1.3013       (EUR/USD - 1.2882 )
GBP/AED - 5.8930     (GBP/AED - 5.8605 )
GBP/AUD - 1.5387     (GBP/AUD - 1.5326 )
GBP/CAD - 1.5927       (GBP/CAD - 1.5912 )
GBP/CHF - 1.4852       (GBP/CHF - 1.4901 )
GBP/HKD - 12.4328    (GBP/HKD - 12.3712 )
GBP/INR - 87.44         (GBP/INR - 88.41 )
GBP/JPY - 132.51       (GBP/JPY - 131.41 )
GBP/NZD - 1.9515       (GBP/NZD - 1.9512 )
GBP/SEK - 10.6725      (GBP/SEK - 10.6229 )
GBP/ZAR - 14.0625       (GBP/ZAR - 14.2265 )


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Increased risk appetite seems to have driven the market over the last 24 hours as we have seen sterling weaken towards 1.23 against the euro and push over 1.60 against the US dollar. Over the course of the week, sterling has some ups and downs as the global focus on the situation with Greece and the looming fiscal cliff in the US has led to market uncertainty and volatility. The main news from the UK was the surprise decision that the Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney would be taking over from Mervyn King in July 2013 as the Governor of the Bank of England. The revised GDP data released confirmed that the UK's economy has excited the double-dip recession, with the revised figures matching the preliminary data showing GDP increased by 1% in the third quarter and this helped sterling to strengthen. Please call in to get a detailed update from your trader.

The main news out of Europe this week was that the European finance ministers had agreed to give Greece the next of its bailout to the tune of €44 billion. In addition they agreed to ease the strict measures that were in place, effectively removing €40 billion pounds worth of debt. The markets produced a muted response as traders were left unimpressed by the actions taken at the Eurogroup meetings and worries spread surrounding how a deal on Greece is going to be implemented, as well as requiring further assistance beyond the new aid package. However on Thursday we saw increased risk appetite which helped support the euro even though the German unemployment data released, although in line with expectations, showed that it continued to increase. The President of the ECB is speaking today and a data showing the region wide rate of unemployment will also be released. Call in now to see how this affects the market.

Over the last 24 hours we have seen increased risk appetite weaken the US dollar. During the week the US dollar had stayed fairly range bound. The increased risk appetite came as a result of GDP data coming out at 2.7%, slightly below expectations; but, showing a strong rise from last quarter's 2% reading highlighting steady growth in the US economy. The number of homes pending sale came out much higher than market expectation; but the number of new homes actually sold fell slightly short of analyst’s predictions. Optimism that the so-called Fiscal cliff could be resolved created risk appetite in the market; but, comments from one of the House Speaker said that the President needed to “get serious” underlines the fragile nature of the situation. In addition, this week we have also seen positive data released in the form of an increase in the demand for durable goods throughout October and US consumer confidence reaching a four year high in November. Get in touch now to take advantage of the most up to date price.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen performed well this week reaching a one week high against the US dollar. The higher yielding currencies had a mixed week as an increase in risk appetite followed the Greek-aid decision and the optimism that the US fiscal cliff would be resolved with the South African rand hitting a two-week high yesterday; however, the Australian dollar struggled yesterday as investors speculate that interest rates could be cut in the near term.  Monthly GDP data released from Canada will be the main release today and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from China will be released on Saturday. Call in now to speak to a trader.

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Exchange rates can move very quickly. The above rates are valid at a moment in time. We have no crystal ball and we recommend that if an exchange rate works for your budget then don’t wait for an even better exchange rate - Murphy’s Law says the rate will go against you and cause you maximum pain! Suggestions should not be taken as advice or fact.

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