15/11/2012

Smart Currency Rates and Comments 15th November 2012 - Bank of England thinks sterling is overvalued

GBP/EUR - 1.2428
GBP/USD - 1.5848
EUR/GBP - 0.8042
EUR/USD - 1.2742
GBP/AED - 5.8178
GBP/AUD - 1.5296
GBP/CAD - 1.5885
GBP/CHF - 1.4971
GBP/HKD - 12.2851
GBP/INR - 86.89
GBP/JPY - 128.02
GBP/NZD - 1.9516
GBP/SEK - 10.7512
GBP/ZAR - 14.0921


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Sterling hasn’t got many fans at the moment including it seems the Governor of the Bank of England. In yesterdays inflation report he highlighted how sterling’s appreciation over the last year, it has risen by 8% on a trade weighted basis, has been detrimental to the competitiveness of the UK’s exports. The knock on effect of all this is that UK growth will, in the view of the BoE, be tepid over the next couple of years. Today we have retails sales data where the expectations are for increases not quite as good as the previous month but still reasonable given the state of the economy. Anything less than expectation will undermine sterling. Call in now to get an update and the latest rates.

The euro appreciated against sterling yesterday which is probably a surprise given all of its problems. I think it highlights how negative the BoE report was. Yesterday we had the coordinated strikes throughout the Euro zones southern states highlighting how counter productive the austerity measures were being viewed and the message does seem to be getting through as the European Union has now begun to publically soften its stance on austerity. This could be good news if Spain was now able to ask for the European Central Banks help without having to implement further austerity cuts as it would help business confidence.  Today we see the release of Euro zone wide GDP figures which are expected to highlight that this lack of business confidence is beginning to hurt the likes of Germany as well. Call in now to get the euro exchange rate.

The US dollar dropped slightly against most other currencies yesterday as US retail sales fell in October for the first time in four months, influenced by Hurricane Sandy. In addition the produce price index unexpectedly dropped in October off the back of a decrease in energy and vehicle costs. Clearly the recovery in the US is not going to be easy and risk aversion is still a major factor and is likely to be the major influencer over the US dollar exchange rate in the short term. Inflation and unemployment claims data are on the agenda today. Get the latest now by calling in.

Elsewhere, the biggest mover of the day was the Japanese yen, losing ground against all major peers and losing the most it has in 8 months against the US dollar. News that the Japanese Prime Minister will dissolve parliament led to significant uncertainty in the region, and decreased demand for the currency. The South African rand also struggled, falling to a five week low on increased concern that a decline in metal exports following the mining crisis seen last month will widen the nation's current-account. Overnight we see the release of manufacturing data from New Zealand, and inflation expectations for Australia. Call in now to see how this impacts the currencies and to get a live rate.

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